Marketing Canvas - Define your financial hypothesis

In a nutshell

When working with the Marketing Canvas, It is important to formulate your financial goal(s) as an hypothesis (Step 2). The assessment that will be done afterwards (Step 3) is measuring your ability to reach this goal without changing your current strategy. It is therefore highly important that you clarify your hypotheses

Financial hypotheses statement

FOR ACHIEVING NEXT YEAR REVENUE (……………) WHICH IS A …………… OF …………… COMPARE TO LAST YEAR, WE WILL:

• ACQUIRE …………… NEW CUSTOMERS

• LOSE ONLY …………… EXISTING CUSTOMERS

• HAVE AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TRANSACTION PER CUSTOMER OF ……………

• HAVE AN AVERAGE PRICE PER TRANSACTION OF ……………

Be clear

It is an hypotheses thus if it is not working you can revisit it. What is important is to understand how you will generate your revenues and more specifically what is different versus last year. Remember the magic revenue equation is YOUR REVENUE = THE CUSTOMERS YOU HAVE (NEW-LOST+EXISTING) x NUMBER OF TRANSACTION THEY DO PER MONTH x 12 x AVERAGE PRICE THEY PAY PER TRANSACTION.

• Will you acquire more new customers compare to last year? How much?

• Will you lose less customers than last year or more? How much?

• Will you stimulate your customers to buy more frequently? How much?

• Will you increase your average price they pay per transaction? How much?

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Each of these elements contribute positively or negatively to your revenue goal. How prepare are you to achieve this? Do you have the right elements in place? Do you have some brakes (elements against you)?

Let me give you an example: If you want to increase by 10% your average price, it probably means that you need to justify a premium versus the competition or correct a wrong pricing (too much discount or promotions). In both case, your brand might be a brake because it is perceived cheap by your customers.

PRICE INCREASE -> ASSESSMENT: BRAND IS A BRAKE BECAUSE PERCEIVED AS CHEAP -> IDEATION: HOW CAN I CHANGE THE VALUE PERCEPTION OF MY BRAND?

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Financial hypothesis for your Marketing Canvas

Marketing Canvas - ARPU

Last update: 27/12/2024

In a nutshell

This comprehensive guide delves into the significance of Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) as a potent metric in business success. Through this exploration, businesses can better understand how much revenue they generate per user and how they stack up against industry competitors. The article not only explains how to calculate and evaluate ARPU but also provides practical strategies to leverage it for sustainable growth. This includes segmenting customer bases, forecasting revenues, and even assessing the effectiveness of various growth strategies like upselling or price optimization. To illustrate the concepts, the article incorporates a real-world case study from the green cleaning industry. Whether you're an entrepreneur, marketer, or non-marketer interested in business strategy, this guide equips you with the knowledge and tools to transform ARPU from a simple number into actionable business insights.

In the Marketing Canvas

The Marketing Canvas is a powerful tool for entrepreneurs and non-marketers to build a robust marketing strategy. It consists of six meta-dimensions, each with four sub-dimensions, for a total of 24 sub-dimensions defining your Marketing Strategy. One of these sub-dimensions is ARPU, which falls under the METRICS meta-category.

Defining ARPU

ARPU, an acronym for Average Revenue Per User, holds significant weight in mobile telecom businesses and, indeed, any business that operates on a user-based model. This value-oriented metric is calculated by dividing the total revenue by the number of active users within a specific time frame, typically a month. The active users, in this context, generally refer to paying customers.

At its core, ARPU is a simple and unambiguous measure that facilitates direct comparisons with competitors, customer base segmentation, and financial forecasting. A business with a higher ARPU, assuming all other factors are constant, enjoys superior profitability.

ARPU's importance is twofold. Firstly, it serves as a testament to a business's customer-centricity, if measured accurately. A company that keeps track of its ARPU has a precise understanding of which clients contribute most significantly to their revenues (the top 10%), and those whose contribution is more modest (the bottom 10%). This metric also reveals the elements contributing to the revenues for each client.

Secondly, a strategy that focuses on improving ARPU is an effective approach to business growth. In the Marketing Canvas framework, we assess whether your ARPU aligns with and advances your business goals. A low ARPU, in comparison to your competitors, implies that each new customer acquired will generate less revenue than a new customer for your competitors. This scenario represents a hurdle that may be overcome by attracting more high-value customers through a stronger brand and value proposition.

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Marketing Canvas Method - Metrics - ARPU

Guidelines

• ARPU provides an easy, high-level benchmark to compare how much revenue one company generates from its users relative to another.

• Examining ARPU by customer segments can yield valuable insights, particularly when paired with other metrics.

• Many financial models start by forecasting your user numbers based on customer acquisition and retention assumptions. By multiplying this number by your ARPU, you can generate a revenue forecast.

Tools for ARPU

Calculating and tracking ARPU is straightforward, but requires the right tools. Revenue tracking software and business intelligence platforms can facilitate the process by automatically calculating ARPU over a given time period. Tools like Tableau, Microsoft Power BI, or Google Analytics are widely used for this purpose. It's crucial to ensure that these tools integrate seamlessly with your accounting or CRM systems to deliver accurate results.

Customer segmentation tools can also be helpful in analysing ARPU across different groups. For example, you might find that customers in a particular geographic area or of a certain age group have a higher ARPU. You can then focus your marketing efforts on attracting more of these high-ARPU customers.

Translating ARPU into Action

After calculating and analysing ARPU, it's time to leverage this metric to inform strategic decisions. A high ARPU relative to your competitors suggests a strong value proposition and efficient monetization. Conversely, a low ARPU may indicate the need for improvement.

If your ARPU is lower than desired, consider strategies such as upselling or cross-selling to existing customers. You could also revise your pricing strategy or explore new revenue streams. For instance, a SaaS company with a low ARPU might consider launching a premium tier of service.

Another way to increase ARPU is by refining your marketing efforts to attract high-value customers. By analyzing customer segments, you can identify the characteristics of your highest-value customers and then target similar prospects.

Statements for self-assessment

Is the ARPU of your users helping you achieve your goals?

Assessing ARPU is vital to gauge whether it aids in attaining your objectives. To evaluate comprehensively, rate your agreement with the below statements on a scale from -3 (completely disagree) to +3 (completely agree):

1. You are capable to measure Average Revenue per User because you know who is buying and using your products and services.

2. The average purchase frequency of your users is above industry average and above direct competitors. 

3. The average spending of each purchase of your users is above industry average and above direct competitors. 

4. The historical trend of your ARPU evolution is positive (growth) and present a positive outlook for next year. 

In addition to these statements, consider how ARPU interacts with other important metrics like Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV). For example, a high ARPU is even more beneficial if it is combined with a low CAC, leading to a high CLTV/CAC ratio.

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Marketing Canvas Method - Metrics - ARPU

Interpretation of the scores

• Negative scores (-1 to -3): Indicate significant gaps in understanding or optimizing ARPU. You may lack the data or strategies needed to measure purchase behavior, spending, and trends effectively, resulting in missed growth opportunities.

• A score of zero (0): Reflects partial effectiveness. While ARPU is tracked, there are inconsistencies in measurement or missed opportunities for improvement. Additional focus on frequency, spending, or sustainability is needed.

• Positive scores (+1 to +3): Suggest a strong ARPU strategy. Metrics are well-tracked and aligned with business goals, exceeding industry benchmarks while supporting long-term customer value and sustainability.

Case study: Green Clean’s ARPU strategy

• Misaligned understanding (-3, -2, -1): Green Clean lacks clear data on who buys and uses its products. Purchase frequency is sporadic, spending per transaction is low, and historical ARPU trends show stagnation or decline.

• Surface understanding (0): Green Clean measures ARPU but struggles to align it with industry benchmarks. While some strategies to improve purchase frequency or spending exist, they lack consistency or long-term planning.

• Deep understanding (+1, +2, +3): Green Clean uses customer data to track ARPU effectively. The brand encourages frequent purchases through a subscription model and increases average spend with bundle offers. Historical ARPU trends show steady growth, and future projections align with the company’s sustainability goals.

Conclusion

The ARPU sub-dimension is critical for understanding and optimizing revenue per user. By accurately measuring ARPU, analyzing trends, and implementing strategies to improve frequency and spending, businesses can drive growth and ensure long-term success. Aligning ARPU with sustainability principles further reinforces customer loyalty and brand integrity.

Sources

1. Definition, Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/average-revenue-user-arpu.asp

2. HUBSPOT, ARPU: How to Calculate and Interpret Average Revenue Per User, https://blog.hubspot.com/service/arpu

More on the Marketing Canvas

Growth in a Digital World

“By 2020 every business will become a digital predator or digital prey — which will your company evolve into?”

— Forrester

If you are reading this article, you might probably be interested in growing your business. While the question is easy to ask (I remember financial controllers asking me to find extra 3% revenue growth while my corporate building had been attacked by 2000 people and we suffered 50M$ damage), the answer is certainly not so obvious these days!

What growth means?

Before defining the solution, we need to understand the problem. If you want more revenue, you need to play with the following parameters of your revenue equation:

• More paid users than today with same number of transactions: you should have more clients on a yearly basis buying your product and services than last year. It can come from the market (population is growing, available market is important) and/or from your commercial actions (acquisition and retention).
• More transactions than today with same number of users: these clients should spend more on average for each commercial transactions they do with you. This can come from either (1) more products purchased during the transaction (e.g. menu versus separated items) and/or (2) an higher price paid for these products (discounted brand versus premium brand). Usually it comes from your commercial activity (stimulation).
• A positive mix of users and/or transactions: Usually the reality sits in a positive mix between users and transactions (we called it elasticity).

At the end, the combination between users and transactions should generate an higher revenue. This is the only way for generating growth. The last 20 years, we were palying with these combination by IMPROVING our commercial processes (doing better) or EXTENDING it (doing more). It did work primarily because population was growing, people economic power was growing and products were not fully available everywhere. Those days are unfortunately gone.

The thesis I am submitting to you is that for the next decade, it is not sufficient and we can only survive as a company if we CHANGE our commercial processes (new business model). Let's find out if my thesis is right.

Insight 1 - Consumers are Changing

People are changing and I am quite optimistic wth this trend. We can see this as a DES-INDUSTRIALISATION of their consumption habits.

They want abundance but they care about waste. They want you to be genuinely true. They want you to be closer. They want all options. And finally, they want you to positvely contribute to their life and world.

Insight 2 - Your World is Changing

In these days, the old habit of looking at what happened last year and extrapolating commercial figures from these data might not work because we are living in a turbulent period. If you are still doubting that we are living in a turbulent period, I really invite you to read Jeremy Rifkin on the Third Industrial Revolution.

The last century, 12,5% of economical growth can only explained by labour performance and machine capital. The rest (87.5%) was a mystery and commonly referred as "the mesure of our ignorance". After 25 years of investigations, a number of analysts concluded that economic growth could be explained by 3 factors: labour performance, machine capital and energy use. During the last 100 years, we have created economic growth thanks to the combination of electricity grid, telecommunications network, road system and fossil fuel energies. Maybe a little bit simplistic, but I would say: WE CREATED GROWTH BY BURNING THE PLANET.

The fantastic news is that we are entering in a third industrial revolution. This revolution is driven by free energy, automated transportation, internet and dematerialisation.

Insight 3 - You have new competitors

Insight 4 - How will you play the game?

5 Attitudes for creating Growth in a Digital World

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If you are not taking this digital revolution seriously (dematerialisation, collaboration, distributed capitalism), you will be most probably a digital prey in the coming years.

As the attention of people is shrinking (we are in an Attention Economy), it is fundamental that you are clear about why people would buy and stay with you (What is your purpose? What job to be done are you in? How do you monetise your activities?).

People and companies are expecting you to be generous because we are in the OUTCOME ECONOMY era where you should help people save time and effort in their daily lives.

Peter Drucker rightly said: "Culture eats strategy at breakfast". It means that even if you have the smartest strategy, you will only be successful if you have the right people and culture for delivering it.

Remember the S-Curve! What you do today, will only generate real results in 2 to 3 years. Start early when you still have time to do it because it is much more difficult when you are running out of cash or profit.